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So, here we go: Fundamentally, Asian Paints looks weak for a Paints only play. 

Asian Paints' competitive advantages were it's distribution and brand:

1. Distribution: completely disrupted with Birla, JSW, Pidilite entering the space. They have a better/larger if not comparable distribution capability,  through their adjacent businesses - Ultratech, JSW Steel, Fevicol/Adhesives etc whose TG is also the construction, real estate and infra industries. Not just that, their distributors can bundle products, offer more discounts on bundled offerings. For instance, steel, adhesives/construction chemicals, cement and Paints to a developer. I believe it is only a matter of time before Adani enters the space. It is absolutely natural for the group given the adjacencies they are in.
2. Brand - Birla, JSW are more deep pocketed than Asian Paints. If Adani enters, he will go for 1/2nd position anyway. These guys are/will be all in on brand building and for a sustained period.
   So, until and unless Asian Paints leverages its massive distribution to launch more products, its fortress (moat) is breached so to say.

What do you think?